„The top 10 trends for 2017” by Gerard Celente
15 stycznia 2017
Gerard Celente to jeden z najbardziej znanych i najbardziej cenionych analityków trendów.
Prognozowaniem trendów zajmuje się już ponad 30 lat. Udało mu się trafnie przewidzieć kilkadziesiąt globalnych wydarzeń min.: kryzys finansowy z 2008 roku, kryzys z 1987 roku, rozpad ZSRR, ostrzegał przed 9/11.
Od 1980 roku prowadzi instytut (The Trends Research Institut), który zajmuje się przewidywaniem oraz prognozowaniem światowych trendów gospodarczych i społecznych.
Jakie trendy, zdaniem Gerarda Celente, będą najważniejsze w 2017 roku?
Pozwolę sobie przytoczyć prognozy w oryginale, bez tłumaczenia i bez używania cytatów (cały artykuł to jeden wielki cytat, gdyż mój tekst to tylko wprowadzenie). Prognozy pochodzą z kwartalnika „The Trends Journal. History before it happens” i są również dostępne w całości na stronie www.trendsresearch.com.
1. Make it new
They all lost.
In elections worldwide, culminating with undisputed reality-show champion Donald Trump’s victory in America’s Presidential Reality Show®, the old guard was defeated. From Brexit to Trump, to populist movements sweeping across Europe, the worldwide hunger to “Make It New” scored resounding victories.
But these victories were not just reflections of the populace’s disdain for a neo-feudal class of entrenched political nobility – the economic elite, the 1 Percent who reap Gilded Age bounties of financial rewards – that rules with impunity and lives above the law.
TREND FORECAST: Populist movements are one – but only one – byproduct of this trend. The foundation has been set for revolution. It’ll come not only in the reformist, protest sense, but in the creation of new art, technology, social awareness and cultural movements that embrace the need for “new.”
Those that understand the depth and scope of this trend, and fulfill the needs of a society in search of deeper meaning and fuller representation, will reap the rewards.
2. Economic disorder
The economic year that was will never be again. The new economic year ahead will be like none we have ever seen before.
TREND FORECAST: As US interest rates rise and the dollar gets stronger, emerging-market currencies will weaken. That, in turn, will dramatically increase their debt-repayment burden and increase financial market instability.
In developed nations, cheap money, not corporate earnings, boosted equity markets with record-breaking merger-and-acquisition and stock-buyback activity. As interest rates rise, and the cost of borrowing increases, true price discovery and market fundamentals will drive the markets.
As evidenced, a stronger dollar will continue to push down gold prices. We forecast gold prices will rebound when global financial market volatility and increasing geopolitical unrest escalate. Therefore, gold will remain a long-term safe-haven asset.
3. True nostalgia
It’s grander than Presidential Reality Show champion Donald Trump’s promise to “Make America Great Again.”
It’s bigger than France’s presidential primary victor, François Fillon, who promises to restore “respect,” “pride” and “French values.”
It’s bigger than the Austrian, Italian, Hungarian, Dutch, German, British, etc., political movements whose foundations are built on bringing back times long gone by, when their countries and cultures expressed treasured values in arts, culture, innovation and tradition.
TREND FORECAST: Advertisers and marketers of products and services that span the retail spectrum in virtually every category – toys, music, magazines, food, fashion, movies, etc. – will reap both sizable financial rewards and greatly expand their customer base by identifying artistic/cultural high points of their nation’s past and retrofitting them for the future.
Among the most obvious is music. Highly digitized, synthesized and computerized, mostly void of instruments, tightly programmed and monotonously predictable, the sounds of today provides but one glaring example of a major market niche to be filled by retrofitted sounds and styles that once prevailed.
Similarly, in nations across the world suffering from socioeconomic unrest and dim prospects for the future, any product/service remix of the past that entails a sense of the good old days will achieve wide consumer appeal.
4. RIP: The 4th Estate
The daily newspaper dies in 2017. Don’t read one anyway? Why should you care?
Today, information fragments – whether sound bites on broadcast news or Twitter firestorms between news sources and media – now pass as news. “The masses,” as Gerald Celente says, “are headline-strong and knowledge-empty.”
But what stands out in 2017 is the perfect storm that’s been raking over the so-called mainstream media this autumn.
The financial fundamentals of media – print, digital and broadcast outlets largely owned by one of six mega corporations – hit lows not seen since the economy’s fall in 2008-09. Declining revenue is triggering layoffs and massive expense reductions. They’ll continue in early 2017.
TREND FORECAST: Expect dramatic shifts to begin early in 2017. National and metro newspapers, as well as smaller newspapers, will aggressively cut space for news to save costs. Print-publication frequency will reduce. The daily newspaper – as we know it today as something you hold in your hand and page through – will fade.
Investigative and in-depth reporting will become even more scant. That will leave the door wide open for unprofessional, poorly resourced and purely biased media to produce shoddy, untrustworthy reporting disguised as legitimate and in-depth.
The truth will be harder to find.
And when upstart or existing alternative-news sites begin to make news, the mainstream media, taking their last breaths, will label it “fake news.”
5. Rust Bell 2.0
The technological wave sweeping the globe in 2017 will trigger a historic, rapid transformation of how societies live, work and play.
With astonishing effect, our machines increasingly will do the thinking for us.
“Big data,” computers’ ability to gather vast amounts of information in complex databases, will be stored in the limitless spheres of “The Cloud.” And the “deep learning” capability of artificial-intelligence software, able to learn from its own mistakes and experiences to improve functionality, will progressively eliminate the need for humans to perform thousands of tasks.
Nearly every industry will be significantly impacted or transformed by the expanding capability and affordability of robot and intelligent automation. Innovations will come from all corners of the globe. They’ll sweep across virtually every commerce, business, professional and lifestyle category.
And that will form the Rust Belt 2.0 trend.
TRENDS FORECAST: In 2017, with dramatic frequency, service-sector jobs will fall to technology. That’ll be followed by middle-management positions being eliminated across the retail spectrum. Customer-service functions and assembly-line work will shrink as well.
On education and skills-training fronts, Rust Belt 2.0 explodes, giving rise to the first generation of virtual-reality education (see our separate top trend). Curriculums will take off in medicine, information technology, accounting, cybersecurity and other fields.
Automation also finds its way into the public sector. Citizens, with increasing frequency, will be able to access records, conduct municipal business and engage local, state and federal governments through virtual-reality-assisted technology.
Moreover, those sales, manufacturing and customer-service jobs that had been sent overseas to low-wage-paying countries can now be done here, via technology, at lower cost.
From Silicon Valley to new, smaller tech centers emerging across the country, American technology now finds itself on an equal plane with the rest of the world… in the era of Rust Belt 2.0.
Investment in artificial intelligence, deep learning, robotics, virtual reality and chip technology is powering Rust Belt 2.0 to levels that will greatly and quickly surpass the dot.com boom of the 1990s.
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